Ali Khalid
The Maldives has faced economic challenges before, most notably in 2008, but it appears we have not fully learned the lessons of the past. Today, we find ourselves in a similar position, and the causes are not difficult to identify. Over the last 15 years, regulators, legislators, the Maldives Monetary Authority, banks, and financiers have all contributed to the current state of affairs. Despite their insistence on the validity of their economic strategies, many decisions were based on flawed analysis.
As we reflect on what went wrong, it's clear that the economics profession, alongside the government, deserves scrutiny for its lack of foresight and intent. Successive governments, regardless of party affiliation, have consistently downplayed the severity of the economic crises, assuring the public that the country was on the right path. However, no political party has been free from the responsibility of governance, and thus no single party can be blamed entirely.
The failure was not just in action but in prediction and forecasting. Few saw the impending disaster, and those who did were ignored. It’s no accident that those advocating policies leading to our current predicament were too entrenched in their belief that minor adjustments could solve the problems. The focus was on short-term solutions like borrowing and refinancing, rather than addressing the root causes of our economic fragility.
The rapid growth of the Maldivian economy, spurred by the opening of the tourism sector in the mid-2000s for foreign investment, led to significant capital inflows. However, alongside this growth came misguided tax policies and unrealistic projections of public revenues. Despite introducing new taxes and expanding public services, the projected revenues failed to materialize. Meanwhile, our currency continued to weaken, and inflation steadily increased.
Source: Statistics Bureau
From the available data, it’s evident that while GDP growth remained steady post-tsunami, it was an outlier in comparison to actual performance. The following years demonstrated a more stable growth trend, but these figures masked deeper issues.
During this period of growth, international banks, funding organizations, and businesses were all too eager to lend. Politicians took credit for securing funds for various projects, but organizing loans for a nation isn’t challenging when repayment seems guaranteed. Now, however, as the country struggles with mounting debt, these same funding organizations demand severe austerity measures.
The governance model tied to these loans is primarily punitive, aimed at disciplining governments seen as corrupt or inefficient. These institutions care little for the well-being of the Maldivian people—they are focused solely on ensuring timely repayment. Rich nations have surplus funds, and lending is a means to generate returns. Their economies rely on repayment as part of their revenue, and they will not allow us to default, even if it comes at the cost of our economic sovereignty.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the Maldives has effectively been in a recession. While neither the outgoing nor the current government may admit this, if the situation persists, we could slip into a full-blown depression. Countries that fall into such crises rarely recover to their former strength. Indonesia, for example, took over a decade to recover from its financial crisis and is now doing very well, while Greece is still struggling to return to its previous economic status.
Raising taxes presents a contradictory challenge. On one hand, the government cannot afford to cut essential public services, like medical insurance, though some reductions have already been made. On the other hand, higher taxes could mean scaling back free amenities such as education and public services, placing further strain on the public.
There are austerity measures that could be effective. The government has rightly highlighted corruption in pharmacies and medical facilities. Making healthcare charges more transparent could deter overcharging, particularly in the insurance sector. Moreover, government expenses could be significantly reduced by cutting overtime costs in the civil service and state-owned enterprises, and by rightsizing organizations. Yet, implementing these reforms has been an ongoing challenge for the government.
Controlling public sector costs is key to stabilizing inflation. The economic crisis in the Maldives is not solely the result of market forces beyond our control—it is also the result of consecutive governments mismanaging the economy, including the current administration, which has failed to address these issues head-on.
Better governance is critical. While full checks and balances may be difficult to achieve in any democracy, legitimacy through reforms is possible. Countries like Sweden demonstrate that higher taxes, excellent public services, and sound governance can coexist. The Maldives must look to such examples as it seeks a way out of its economic crisis.
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