Ahmed Mohamed
The Maldives, highly dependent on tourism, is experiencing a serious financial and economic crisis. As of the end of 2023, the country’s foreign exchange reserves had declined by 25% over the year, and by July 2024, usable reserves had dwindled to a level where they could not cover even a month’s worth of imports. Combined with a 116.5% debt-to-GDP ratio as at the end of 2023 and ongoing budget and current account deficits, economic circumstances have gotten out of hand.
Source: Ministry of Finance (Quarterly Debt Bulletin)
Source: Maldives Monetary Authority (Monthly Statistics)
Source: Maldives Monetary Authority (Monthly Statistics)
The Maldives’ tourism industry, which contributes more than 25% of the GDP and almost 80% of foreign exchange earnings, leaves the economy extremely susceptible to changes in international markets. Over the first seven months of 2024, foreign exchange reserves have further decreased by 28%, highlighting the worsening condition of the Maldives’ economy. Weak governance and high import costs have exacerbated the current account deficit, compounding the economic challenges.
In a nation where global economic shifts are felt almost instantly, traditional austerity—characterized by deep spending cuts and tax hikes—could do more harm than good. For the Maldives, austerity is a double-edged sword – potentially reducing deficits at the cost of weakening the economy’s vigour. As Stiglitz (2012) warns, austerity policies can sometimes aggravate inequality and social discontent, even when fiscal discipline is necessary.
The stakes are too high for the Maldives to just depend on fiscal tightening. To secure its future, the Maldives needs to adopt bold, forward-thinking strategies. With careful consideration of lessons from the other Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the Maldives can build a resilient and more diverse economy that is better prepared for future challenges.
Given these challenges, this article argues that while austerity measures might offer short-term relief, they are not sufficient for ensuring long-term economic stability in the Maldives. By examining the experiences of other Small Island Developing States (SIDS) like Jamaica, Seychelles, Barbados, and Sri Lanka, this article explores alternative strategies that balance fiscal discipline with sustainable growth, economic diversification, and social protection. Through these lessons, the Maldives can chart a path to a more resilient and inclusive economy, avoiding the pitfalls of over-reliance on austerity.
Sole Reliance on Austerity is Not Enough
Slashing public expenditure and raising taxes through austerity measures to overcome economic distress is often experienced as bitter medicine. While it might seem like a quick fix, this approach can stifle growth, leaving economies even more vulnerable in the long run—especially in small, fragile nations. The very essence of what keeps a society thriving—people's jobs, essential public services, and social stability—can be slowly drained away, turning what might have been a temporary crisis into a long and difficult battle for survival (OHCHR, 2013).
In the Maldives, this sole reliance on austerity is like fixing a sinking ship with a Band-Aid. Austerity measures might offer a quick fix for the budget deficit, but they could also weaken the very fabric of the Maldivian society and economy. Tourism is the lifeblood of the Maldives, and with external shocks always on the horizon, relying solely on austerity without fostering growth and diversification is a risky path. It’s not just about tightening the belt; the Maldives needs a plan that allows it to thrive, not just get by.
Lessons for the Maldives from Small Island Nations
Jamaica: Debt Restructuring and Social Protection
Key Insights: The Jamaican story has been one of resilience and thoughtful balance. Faced with a massive accumulation of debt, the country didn't just tighten its belt but reinvented a different way the economy could work for all. With support of the IMF, Jamaica went ahead with tough fiscal reforms without losing sight of its people. The Jamaican government did not alienate those at the lower rungs of society; even with increased taxes and a wage freeze, it made sure that no one was left behind by continuing programs like Programme of Advancement Through Health and Education (PATH), which supported the vulnerable sections of the society (IMF, 2019a). Jamaica found a delicate balance between strict policies and a focus on social well-being. It’s a testament to the idea that austerity doesn’t have to mean sacrificing the well-being of a nation’s citizens.
Relevance to the Maldives: For the Maldives, Jamaica’s experience offers a crucial lesson: balance is key to successful economic reform. As the Maldives faces the tough challenge of managing growing debt and reducing its twin deficits, it’s important to remember that a nation’s real wealth is its people. What Jamaica shows us is that austerity alone isn’t enough to get the results we want. To stay afloat in these financial waters, the Maldives will need strong social security programs to protect the most vulnerable. Equally important is working closely with multilateral and bilateral partners. With these lessons in mind, the Maldives can work towards financial stability without losing sight of the well-being of its citizens by following the Jamaicans success story (IMF, 2019a).
Seychelles: Blue Economy and Debt-for-Nature Swaps
Key Insights: Seychelles’ maritime resources—its lifeline—were used to help stabilize its debt-ridden economy. Confronted with significant debt and the imperative to safeguard its rich marine ecosystem, Seychelles took the lead in implementing blue bonds and debt-for-nature swaps (World Bank, 2018). These innovative financial tools not only helped lower its debt but also reinforced Seychelles' commitment to preserve its marine resources. The funds collected enabled initiatives designed to conserve the environment, including sustainable fisheries management and coral reef protection, thereby securing the natural resources of the country for the enjoyment of future generations (The Commonwealth, 2020). Seychelles' strategy demonstrates the success of combining economic goals with environmental preservation.
Relevance to the Maldives: The Maldives, with its vibrant marine life, has a unique opportunity. To stabilise the economy innovative financial tools like blue bonds and debt-for-nature swaps will be a game changer. These instruments not only help manage debt but also boost conservation efforts. Embracing these strategies allows the Maldives to address fiscal challenges while positioning itself as a leader in the blue economy. The success story of Seychelles shows that prioritising environmental sustainability can protect natural resources and enhance economic resilience and growth (World Economic Forum, 2024).
Barbados: Austerity with Growth Initiatives
Key Insights: Barbados has shown that austerity doesn’t just mean tightening belts—it can also go hand in hand with smart growth strategies. Through the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) program, the country focused not only on fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring but also took significant steps to reform State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). These changes focussed on increasing the efficiency of SOEs and lowering the financial load on public resources. But Barbados didn’t stop there. The government also prioritized economic diversification and investing in key sectors like tourism and financial services to promote growth. This balanced approach—combining necessary austerity with forward-looking growth initiatives and SOE reforms—not only stabilized the economy but also laid the groundwork for long-term resilience. It serves as a reminder that even in tough times, it's crucial to pursue growth and development, not just austerity (IMF, 2019b; IMF, 2021).
Relevance to the Maldives: Barbados’ journey offers valuable lessons for the Maldives. By adopting a balanced strategy that combines austerity with smart growth initiatives, the Maldives can work towards stabilizing its economy. Reforming State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) is crucial, as inefficiencies in these areas can seriously strain public finances (IMF, 2019b). Like Barbados, the Maldives, with its heavy reliance on tourism, should consider diversifying its economy to better withstand external shocks. The lesson from Barbados is clear: by blending austerity measures with strategic investments in growth sectors and improving the efficiency of SOEs, the Maldives can aim to stabilize its economy and pave the way for sustainable, long-term development.
Sri Lanka: A Cautionary Tale of Debt Mismanagement
Key Insights: Sri Lanka’s story is a clear example of what can go wrong when ambitious plans aren’t backed by solid financial management. The country took on high-interest foreign loans for big infrastructure projects, but when these didn’t pay off, debt spiralled out of control (Athukorala, 2024). Corruption, nepotism, and a trade deficit worsened the situation. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic and global downturn hit, causing severe shortages and a financial crisis (Athukorala, 2024; UNDP, 2022). This highlights the need for careful financial management and realistic planning, especially for smaller island economies (Athukorala, 2024).
Relevance to the Maldives: The lessons from Sri Lanka’s debt crisis offer valuable guidance for the Maldives to avoid a similar economic struggle. Since Sri Lanka ran into trouble by borrowing heavily for projects that didn’t pay off, it’s crucial for the Maldives to make sure its infrastructure investments are not only needed but truly beneficial (World Bank, 2022). Transparency and careful planning are key to preventing economic mismanagement, which was a major challenge in Sri Lanka’s case (Lakhtakia et al., 2022). By aligning investments with long-term development goals, the Maldives can safeguard its economic future, ensuring that debt-funded projects contribute positively to the nation’s growth (IMF, 2024). By adopting these lessons, the Maldives can implement better debt management practices and steer clear of the pitfalls of debt mismanagement.
A Balanced Fiscal Path is Needed
The Maldives is standing at a crucial crossroads. The decisions we make right now aren't just about policies or numbers—they're about the future of our families, our communities, and the generations to come. Drawing from the experiences of other Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and small economies, we need a thoughtful and balanced approach to overcome our economic hurdles. This means rethinking our debt, exploring new opportunities to diversify our economy, investing in sustainable projects that protect our natural resources, and strengthening social support for everyone. The path we choose today will shape our nation's story for years ahead.
Debt Restructuring and External Support
Debt restructuring is vital for the Maldives, given its significant debt burden. The cautionary tale of Sri Lanka highlights the risks of unsustainable borrowing and poor financial management. To avoid similar pitfalls, the Maldives should seek to restructure its debt with the support of international partners like the IMF, ensuring that new borrowing is prudent and aligned with long-term economic goals. Jamaica’s experience further emphasizes the importance of maintaining social protection during fiscal reforms, ensuring that the most vulnerable are not left behind (Athukorala, 2024; IMF, 2019a).
Diversification of the Economy
The Maldives has flourished over the years, largely due to its booming tourism industry, which has brought both wealth and opportunities. But this heavy reliance also makes the nation vulnerable to global disruptions. If travel slows down or environmental changes take a toll, the effects could ripple through communities across the country.
The Seychelles offers a valuable lesson in resilience. Through innovative strategies like blue bonds and debt-for-nature swaps, they’ve successfully diversified their economy. The Maldives has the same potential. By investing in fisheries, marine biotechnology, and modernizing agriculture—especially with hydroponics—new industries can take root. This wouldn’t just boost the economy but also secure the food supply and reduce the need for imports.
On top of that, the Maldives’ prime location along major shipping routes offers a golden opportunity to become a hub for transshipment, bunkering, trade, and financial services.
Even within tourism, there’s room to expand. Embracing eco-tourism, wellness tourism, and positioning the Maldives as a destination for international events could further strengthen the economy. These steps aren’t just about economic growth—they’re about making sure the Maldives stays strong and resilient, ensuring a brighter, more secure future for everyone who calls these beautiful islands home.
Sustainable Growth Investments
Sustainable growth is the bedrock of a secure and promising future. Barbados, through its Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) program, taught us a vital lesson: it’s not enough to simply cut back; we also need to invest in the future we want. By making smart financial choices and committing to long-term growth, Barbados kept its economy strong and resilient. The Maldives can follow this path by embracing renewable energy, green technologies, and infrastructure projects. These efforts aren’t just about boosting the economy—they’re about ensuring our children grow up with clean air to breathe, surrounded by a healthy environment, in a nation ready to face whatever tomorrow may bring.
Social Protection and Inclusivity
Austerity, if not handled with care, can deepen the divide between the haves and the have-nots. But Jamaica’s experience teaches us that it’s possible to tighten the purse strings while still looking out for those who need help the most. By prioritizing strong social protection programs, Jamaica made sure that the burden of economic adjustment didn’t fall unfairly on the poor. The Maldives can do the same by expanding healthcare subsidies, unemployment benefits, and targeted support for low-income families. This isn’t just about fairness—it’s about keeping our society together and ensuring that everyone has a stake in the country’s future.
Navigating Beyond Austerity
The Maldives is at a critical point, facing decisions that will shape its future. It's not just about fixing the economy; it's about lifting up our people. By learning from Jamaica, Seychelles, Barbados, and Sri Lanka, we can adopt a more balanced approach—one that blends debt restructuring, economic diversification, sustainable investments, and social protection. This is about more than just numbers; it’s about creating a future where every Maldivian can thrive.
To steer clear of the struggles Sri Lanka faced with unsustainable debt, we need to focus on smart debt restructuring, guided by careful financial planning and the support of trusted international partners. By taking a page from Seychelles and diversifying our economy, we can ease our reliance on tourism and better protect the livelihoods of our people from unpredictable global shocks. Barbados teaches us that pairing fiscal reforms with investments in renewable energy and infrastructure isn’t just smart—it’s essential for building a future our children can count on. And from Jamaica, we learn that true progress is about looking out for the most vulnerable, making sure that economic changes lift everyone up, not just a select few.
The road ahead may be tough, but with determination and willingness to embrace change, we can build an economy that’s strong, inclusive, and ready for the future. The time to act is now—our decisions today will shape the future of the Maldives.
Editor's Note:
The author has started to upload a Dhivehi translation of this article to his own blogspot.
References
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Maldives Economy Today | Issue 1 Vol. 1 | Austerity & Recovery
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